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DTN Midday Livestock Comments          07/06 13:36

   Livestock Contracts Trending Higher

   Monday has shot another dose of optimism through the livestock futures and 
keeps all three markets trading higher.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

   General Comments

   Continuing to rally and thrive into Monday's noon hour -- the livestock 
complex is continuing to rally off last week's positive movement and has all 
three livestock contracts trending higher. The fundamental support for the 
market rally is slim to none but as the market keeps inching higher and higher, 
time will hold the answers as to how true and substantial this move is. 
September corn is up 4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $2.20. 
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 327.23 points and NASDAQ is up 220.59 


   Live cattle contracts jump into the new week full of energy and optimism. 
August live cattle are up $0.72 at $100.12, October live cattle are up $1.22 at 
$103.90 and December live cattle are up $1.02 at $106.95. Showlists this week 
are higher in Kansas, somewhat higher in Texas and somewhat lower in Nebraska 
and Colorado. Now with the July Fourth holiday behind us, the market will start 
to test the summer fat cattle market immensely. Hot days, a surplus of cattle 
and questions regarding third quarter beef demand are going to greatly affect 
the cash cattle market in the near future.

   Even though last week was shortened for the holiday, cash cattle trade was 
huge. The National Weekly Direct Slaughter -- Negotiated Purchases shared that 
last week's sales totaled 127,258 head. Of that 118,448 head are committed for 
delivery in the next two weeks, and the remaining 8,810 head are for delivery 
in the following 15 to 30 days.

   Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.38 ($205.06) and select down 
$2.27 ($196.49) with a movement of 117 loads (64.44 loads of choice, 17.15 
loads of select, 18.86 loads of trim and 16.68 loads of ground beef).


   Feeder cattle contracts haven't forgot about the big price move made last 
week before Thursday's close and have picked up that support and are carrying 
optimism into this week's marketplace. August feeders are up $0.92 at $135.80, 
September feeders are up $0.90 at $136.72 and October feeders are up $0.75 at 
$137.40. Feeder cattle prices have been truly commendable throughout the early 
summer sales which came as a surprise to most but as prices keep creeping 
higher and higher, the feeder cattle contracts could be subject to downward 
pressure when cash cattle prices continue to develop for lower money.


   The lean hog complex; though not as aggressive as the cattle contracts, is 
trending higher into the new week throughout the entire complex. July lean hogs 
are up $0.42 at $45.15, August lean hogs are up $0.45 at $49.65 and October 
lean hogs are up $0.82 at $49.17. Watching how aggressively packers slaughter 
hogs through the next couple of months will greatly determine how much longer 
we have to chat about the backlog of hogs. But with the next big holiday being 
Labor Day, the marketplace is going to need household consumer demand to be 
extraordinary, and hopefully restaurants can continue to stay open with 
concerns about more COVID-19 cases popping up.

   The projected lean hog index for 7/1/2020 is down $0.26 at $45.02 and the 
actual index for 6/30/2020 is up $0.04 at $45.28. Hog prices are unavailable on 
the National Direct Morning Hog Report due to packer submission problems. Pork 
cutouts totaled 217.42 loads with 189.92 loads of pork cuts and 27.49 loads of 
trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.59, $68.05.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached


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