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DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 12/04 06:13
Traders May Begin the Week Cautiously
The cattle complex fell apart on Friday with feeder cattle posting over
$5.00 losses. Futures fell back near the lows as the market was unable to find
strong buyer interest. Hogs were lower suffering some of the same fate, but not
with the pressure of cattle. Cash and cutouts remained weak.
Robin Schmahl
DTN Contributing Analyst
Cattle: Lower Futures: Lower Live Equiv: $215.36 -$0.62*
Hogs: Lower Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv: $91.00 -$0.32**
*Based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue.
(The Live Cattle Equiv. Index has been updated to depict recent changes in live
cattle weights and grading percentages.)
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Cattle futures just could not maintain any of the strength after the lows
were reached earlier in the week. This weakness may set the stage for lower
cash again this week. Packers will likely use this weakness to bid lower as
feedlots may want to move cattle before price drops further. Contract lows will
need to hold, or more technical selling will erupt. Cash cattle trade on Friday
was in line with the week which should have been factored into the market. It
seemed like it was end of the week selling as traders were uncertain over
further upside potential in the near term. Feeder cattle plummeted and closed
near their previous lows. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds trimmed
their net long live cattle futures positions by 2,479 contracts, moving to a
net long of 32,691. Feeder cattle showed funds selling 721 contracts moving
them to a net short of 1,179 contracts.
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